The Last War Chronicles — Again

By Keith Bontrager

Is that all they’ve got? 😆 How about some miracle cost-cutting strategy? Maybe the FORT members can repair the bridges themselves — gratis? 😆😆

Back to Earth

Planning for a potential passenger rail system continues, and the executive summary of the concept report was published recently. That means quite a bit more information is available now than there was in 2022.

This study was something FORT celebrated not too long ago when it began. But now that the preliminary results are available, they aren’t very happy. Which makes sense: the imaginary train they’ve promoted for decades is no longer. The reality check came down hard on that “vision.”

Their response? More studies. Peer review. Claims that the consultants don’t know what they’re talking about. Predictable, I suppose.

Even though the report is selling the system pretty hard — with some demonstrably exaggerated ridership forecasts — and the very high construction cost estimate does not include several significant elements (like elevated tracks along Beach Street, over wetlands in the south, or coastal armoring in Capitola and La Selva Beach), the result is clear: the project is doomed.

The reasonable takeaway for any sentient observer

Iit will cost too much to build and operate, and serve far too few people to justify that cost.

Going deeper, the plug is likely to be pulled on the federal grant program the RTC was counting on. The current administration is not fond of mega-expensive rail projects in California. Without that federal grant program, the project’s short-term outlook is toast.

While that hasn’t put off the true believers, it’s certainly a signal to everyone else that wrapping up the planning is sensible at this point. They took their best shot at it for a decade, but it’s not going to work out. This is the perfect opportunity to call it.

The next phase of planning is unfunded, isn’t likely to be funded, and would only be a jobs program for the consultants if it was funded. It’s not work the RTC would be doing even if the project advanced in the federal program. Wasted resources.

The logical steps toward railbanking

The executive summary shows there likely won’t ever be a passenger rail system built here. That means no track repairs or bridge replacements — which are required for both passenger and freight trains. So freight rail service will end at Milepost 3 in Watsonville. Forever.

Without a functioning track, the freight operator will walk. They’re losing money here. Then the RTC will be left with an unusable corridor, no operator, and no way to change that. That’s the kind of situation that leads to railbanking — or worse, abandoning the corridor entirely and letting portions revert to private ownership.

Greenway may have been a little ahead of the game, but it looks like their preferred alternative will soon be the only alternative for the RTC.

And the whole idea that “state and federal funding will cover 80–90% of project costs”?

Mainlining pure hopium.