MBEP's Webinar with Dr. Jon Haveman Shares an Updated Look at Economic Indicators for the Monterey Bay Region

Jun 26

Content by Monterey Bay Economic Partnership

A webinar with Dr. Jon Haveman on Tuesday gave participants a chance to hear an update to data presented by the renowned economist at MBEP's May 2025 Regional Economic Outlook. In a wide-ranging discussion that touched on everything from interest rates and tariffs, to inflation and elevated egg prices, Dr. Haveman reiterated that uncertainty remains an underlying theme in economic discussions at a moment where the depth and impact of federal cutbacks, tariffs, and a U.S. strike against Iran are still coming into focus.

Haveman, a principal with Marin Economic Consulting, is a leading expert on the economics of seaports, goods movement, and international trade policy as well as an expert in regional economies and local economic development.

In his presentation, he outlined "significant" changes to the economic indicators since early May 1, as well as new insights into personal income and the implications of some of the labor exodus from the region.

Timely and accurate information about what's happening in our regional economy can better equip us to make decisions for our own families, our companies, and for the region, said Monterey Bay Economic Partnership President & CEO Tahra Goraya, who hosted the webinar.

Key Highlights from Dr. Haveman's Webinar

Q1 2025 GDP revised down by 0.2% due to increased imports before anticipated tariffs, highlighting economic vulnerability.
Retail sales growth from January to May 2025 at just 0.6%, well below the typical growth rate of 2-3%.
Job creation outperformed expectations with 147,000 jobs added in April and 139,000 in May, driven largely by the foreign-born population.
Two-thirds of job growth since the pandemic has occurred among foreign-born workers, totaling 3.9 million jobs versus 1.5 million for native-born.
Native population growth in the U.S. projected to turn negative in the early 2030s, impacting long-term workforce demographics.
MBEP region showing a decline in agriculture jobs, likely influenced by deportations and immigration enforcement.
Monterey County's employment growth outpaces the California average, while Santa Cruz County struggles to recover.
Higher-income residents are migrating into the MBEP region, driving per capita income growth despite net out-migration of middle-income earners.
AI implementation expected to cause workforce displacement within five years, raising the possibility of discussions on guaranteed minimum income.
Local businesses, especially restaurants and agricultural sectors, are experiencing significant disruptions due to immigration fears and tariff impacts.